energy theory
The peak oil initiation
A commonplace of discussion in the peak oil scene for most of its existence is the way that communication so often fails between those who get peak oil and the majority that doesn't. In this third post discussing the interface between peak oil and magic, the Archdruid offers another way of looking at these breakdowns. Step into the lodge room and make the secret sign--today's meeting of the Ancient Hubbertian Order of Peak Oil is about to begin...
The renewable revolution - II
After I published in "Cassandra's Legacy" a post titled "The renewable revolution" I was surprised at discovering that many of the commenters reacted negatively to it, taking for granted the fact that renewables, in the form of photovoltaics or wind, "have a low EROEI" and, as a consequence, are unable to exist without a subsidy from fossil fuels. This view has its origins in the 1990s, when it was commonplace to state that "A renewable plant cannot provide enough energy to repay the energy needed to build the plant." That is, the EROEI of renewables was supposed to be smaller than one.
Perhaps the "low EROEI" of renewables was true in the 1990s, but it is not true any longer.
Climate change, peak oil - the video game
The global economy is headed toward collapse, revolutions are breaking out across the Middle East, famine is ravaging Africa and the world is approaching a peak oil crisis. No, these are not headlines ripped from the news; these are the challenges facing Windows and Mac gamers in "Fate of the World: Tipping Point from Red Redemption."
This hardcore strategy game puts players in hypothetical situations within a realistic world, with threatening scenarios based on the latest science and modeling technologies covering the next two centuries. Players must balance economic, political and environmental needs in order to save the world (or destroy it).
A brief economic explanation of Peak Oil
Unless and until adaptive responses are large and fast enough to constrain the upward trend of oil prices, the primary adaptive response will be periodic economic crashes of a magnitude that depresses oil consumption and oil prices. These have the effect of shifting consumption from incumbent consumers—the advanced economies—to the new consumers in the developing economies.
“The Quest” questioned - the series
Journalist Mason Inman does what the mainstream media won't: he gives a balanced, critical look at the claims of energy historian Daniel Yergin about peak oil. (Latest in a series. )
#3 - We’re finding oil faster than we’re using it?
#4 - Only the pessimists have been wrong?
#5 - Peak oil = running out of oil?
Don’t be a PV efficiency snob
A common question I get when discussing solar photovoltaic (PV) power is: “What is the typical efficiency for panels now?” When I answer that mass-market polycrystalline panels are typically about 15–16%, I often see the questioner’s nose wrinkle, followed by dismissive mumbling that 15% is still too low, and maybe they’ll wait for higher numbers before personally pursuing solar. By the end of this post, you will understand why this response is annoying to me. At 15%, we’re in great shape: it’s plenty good for our needs.
Ignoring Daniel Yergin
Upon reading Yergin's latest missive to the world's policy elite, I found myself utterly bored. Could this man ever say something that would upset anyone other than a small group of activists who are extremely worried about oil supplies peaking before the end of this decade? I doubt it. He is paid to soothe, and these days so soothing is his writing that it should be placed next to the Sominex on the drugstore shelf.
No matter how well-reasoned one's arguments are, as a tactical matter, a head-to-head confrontation in the media with Yergin will be a draw at best, but more likely a loss since reason is not what moves crowds. I agree that the fact that Yergin must now address peak oil explicitly and at length shows that he is actually on the defensive. Before, say, 2005 he wouldn't have bothered even to mention it. This shows some progress, but not among those who matter most.
35 reasons you might want to attend the 2011 ASPO-USA conference
2. To make your voice heard in Washington about this issue - because we don't have much time to begin to act, and every person here who says 'I care deeply about this' helps reinforce our message of the centrality of this issue.
3, To hear Wes Jackson talk about what we're going to eat in the coming decades.
4. To get the latest in the emerging story on Shale Gas reality.
5. Because where else can you hear Nicole Foss and Jeff Rubin arguing deflation vs. inflation in the hallways?
6. Because our future depends on getting the word out and we need your help.
7. Because if you want to do with your retirement funds in this economy there are more experts here per square foot than anywhere else.
More thoughts on peak oil
In Saturday's Wall Street Journal, Daniel Yergin, chairman of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, gave his explanation of what's wrong with peak oil. Here's why I don't find his analysis altogether convincing. ... I submit that meeting the growing global demand for crude oil over the last five years has posed significant challenges for the world economy. And those who worry that the next 5-10 years might be like the last should not be dismissed as crackpots.
“The Quest” questioned: Yergin wrong on peak oil
Daniel Yergin, a Pulitzer Prize-winning historian and energy analyst, is one of the world’s greatest optimists about oil supplies. In “There Will Be Oil“—his article in the Wall Street Journal to plug his new book, The Quest—Yergin sums up a chapter of his book, the one about fears that the world will soon reach its peak of oil production. Yergin argues, however, that “on a global view, Hubbert’s Peak is still not in sight.”
But the arguments in his article—and in his 800-page book—are full of gaping holes, so I’m going to dedicate a number of blog posts to sticking my head into a number of them. (First two parts in a series)
ASPO-USA Conference: Experts to seek “truth in energy”, find solutions to end of cheap oil
Experts on energy and the economy will gather on Capitol Hill, November 2-5, to confront the global challenge of resource depletion, Peak Oil, and the end of cheap energy—with a focus on economic implications and strategies to navigate an uncertain and rapidly changing future.
"Peak Oil, Energy & the Economy", the 2011 conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas USA (ASPO-USA), will feature cutting edge research and analysis by leading experts from North America and Europe. Under the theme of “Truth in Energy”, the event will take a hard look at America's energy and economic challenges, and the actions required to tackle them.
Teaching peak oil to preteens
What will our cities look like from a preteen’s perspective in the not-too-distant future when peak oil pushes gas and food prices to new heights? No rides to the mall? No eating out? City-wide blackouts? Catastrophic! It was to Luz and her friends at first, but through a little bit of creativity and preteen gumption they discover the hidden potentials of an abandoned lot in their neighbourhood. Claudia Dávila’s debut graphic novel, "Luz Sees the Light," sets Luz and her friends on a path to transform their fossil-fueled world.
Qui a tué la croissance
French translation of the animation Who Killed Economic Growth?.
Recovering lost knowledge about exhaustion of the Earth’s resources (such as Peak Oil)
One of the saddest aspects of the Internet is that it so often fails to make us smarter. In a mutant version of Gresham’s Law, loud amateurs too-often drown out the voices of experts. Here we an excerpt from a 1975 book that tells us more about Peak Oil than a typical dozen posts on most peak oil websites. [Excerpt from Sir Ronald Prain’s classic "Copper: the anatomy of an Industry"]
Complete English translation of German military analysis of peak oil now available
Last week the Bundeswehr posted an English version (112 pgs) of their extraordinary analysis of peak oil. The original German document (125 pgs) was approved for public release last November, yet neither the complete German version nor the partial English translation has attracted interest from mainstream media. Now that a complete translation is available, it is hoped that media throughout the English-speaking world will see the Bundeswehr study for what it is: a comprehensive, realistic analysis of one of the most formidable challenges of this century, the (potentially imminent) peaking of global oil production.
Review: Life Without Oil by Steve Hallett With John Wright
“Imagining a world without oil” describes in stark detail what might happen if one day the world decided to decommission all its oil tankers, rigs, pipelines and strategic reserves. The authors, environmental scientist Steve Hallett and journalist John Wright, expect that we’d initially see sky-high prices and long lines at pumps. After a few weeks, fuel wouldn’t be had at any price and even first-world citizens would struggle to stay fed and out of the elements. This is no Hollywood doomsday scenario—it’s a levelheaded extrapolation from current trends in the fast deteriorating world energy situation. [An essay prefiguring the book originally appeared in The Washington Post.]
Economics has failed us...but there is life after growth!
Transition Voice's review of Richard Heinberg's latest book, The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality.
Shale gas EROI: Preliminary estimate suggests 70 or greater
The key to the future of shale gas is its EROI. I’ve been unable to find estimates of the EROI of shale gas in the literature. However, I’ve made a preliminary first-order estimate that the EROI of shale gas is in the range of 70 to greater than 100. This is probably significantly better than most other energy sources available today.
Recipe for climate change in two easy steps
Today, we're going to make the world less comfortable, in two easy steps that each of you can do at home. Step 1 shows how easy it is to account for the carbon dioxide excess in the atmosphere based on our cumulative use of fossil fuels. Step 2 bypasses intricacies of thermal radiation to put an approximate scale on the amount of heating we would expect the excess CO2 to produce. Serves 7 billion.
Renewable energy zealots must understand ‘Net Energy'
Was I surprised that last issue’s column, Can Renewables Outshine Fossil Fuels?, elicited a strong reaction, with written responses of support and derision? Not at all. It’s an issue that continues to divide the environmental community, and one which keeps us from moving forward as quickly as possible to conserve resources and relocalize as an era of cheap, concentrated, easy-to-get energy comes to an end.
